Predictive Modeling of Pedestrian Behavior in Mass Gatherings: a Study of the Zenit Arena

Proper organization of mass gatherings essentially requires prior planning and establishment of the optimal mode of routing pedestrian flows, which is determined by both the regulations and the constructive methods of noncapital investments.

Here in the lab we are capable of modeling the movements of crowds during mass gatherings of people in regular and extreme scenarios. Moreover, we can use the acquired simulation results to inform the optimization of the structure and regulations of the utilization of the venue for mass gathering.

A model based on the concept of the social forces that drive pedestrian steering is used here. As an input to be processed, it receives the CCTV camera, turnstile sensor or cell tower mobile phone use density data.

The model has a wide range of applications, from assisting the planning of mass gatherings and short-term prediction of pedestrian walking conditions during such events, to the development and assessment of emergency crowd management measures.

Above is a visual representation of the model implementation: a simulation of the relocations of football fans attending the currently-constructed Zenit Arena football stadium (Saint-Petersburg, Russia) based on open data about the outline of the venue.


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  • ФЦП ИР №14.584.21.0015 от 11.11.2015 г.