Influenza Propagation Modeling

Influenza is a severe virus infection which affects the people of any age and social status. The influenza propagation is caused by the contacts between the people and depends on the social activity and individual characteristics of the persons, particularly on the immunity level. These contacts occur at random (in public transport, at work, in communal areas) and are hard to be monitored. Thus for the investigation and forecasting the flu dynamics the means of computer modeling could be used.

We are capable of modeling the infectious diseases propagation process with the help of the contact structure which is dynamically formed by the multiscale model of the transport and pedestrian mobility of the urban population. This approach allows to reproduce the propagation process with a great detail, and also to trace the particular ways of infection propagation to test the most promising strategies for the epidemics control.

As an example we propose the process of the influenza propagation in Saint-Petersburg modeled with the help of a contact network built on the data of daily population mobility. 

Publications

  • Guschin Andrey, Shmelev Vadim, Karbovskii Vladislav

    Use of modern information and computer technologies in historical and urban studies with the example of epidemiological situation in the city of Simbirsk during the First World War // AICT 2015 - Proceedings. — 2015. — Vol. 2015. — pp. 527-530.

Projects

  • The Russian Science Foundation #14–21–00137, 15.08.2014