Modeling the Structure of Sexual Contacts and the Propagation of HIV

HIV-infection is a virus disease with slow progression which affects the immune system. In present time the dominating way of the HIV spread is connected with the sexual transmission. The structure of sexual contacts is hard to be monitored, particularly due to ethical limitations. As a result, the investigation and the forecasting of HIV dynamics could be better managed by means of computer modeling. 

We are capable of modeling the sexual contact networks (homo- and heterosexual ones) based on the knowledge of the aggregated statistical data. Using these networks, we have created the model of HIV propagation which considers the possibilities of infection transmission via homo- and heterosexual contacts, along with the transmission connected with the sharing of contaminated injection equipment in the drug user communities. The model supports various scenarios of disease progress on its different stages, including the efficacy of diagnosis and treatment, and also the transmission routes between different social groups. 

The model could be used to investigate the propagation of various sexually transmitted diseases.

As an example we demonstrate the modeling of a mixed network which contains homo- and heterosexual connections. It serves as a base for the HIV propagation in the population.

Publications

  • Sloot P.M.A., Ivanov S.V., Boukhanovsky A.V., Van de Vijver D.A.M.C., Boucher C. A.

    Stochastic simulation of HIV population dynamics through complex network modelling // International Journal of Computer Mathematics. — 2008. — Vol. 85., Issue 8. — pp. 1175-1187.

  • Иванов С.В., Колыхматов И.И., Бухановский А.В.

    Моделирование эволюционной динамики ВИЧ // Труды ХV Всероссийской научно-методической конференции Телематика'2008. — 2008. — № 1. — С 103-104.

Projects

  • The Russian Science Foundation #14–21–00137, 15.08.2014