Storm surge is a common hazard for many coastal cities worldwide. Since Saint Petersburg, since it was founded in 1703, it has suffered from more than 300 hundreds of floods (i.e. when the water level in the estuary of the Neva River has exceeded 160 cm). Floods in Saint Petersburg are caused by deep cyclones that cross the Baltic Sea along its center line from southwest to northeast. When a cyclone moves across the sea, they it raises the water level by its low-pressure center and initiates the propagation of a long progressive wave. The height of the wave increases as it travels through the shallow and narrow water area of the Gulf of Finland.
We can simulate and forecast water level fluctuations in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland using a complex of numerical hydrodynamic and probabilistic models. Simulation results of these models are also used in the St. Petersburg Barrier (introduced into service in 2011) Authority (introduced into service in 2011) for floodgate operation scheduling. To account for all major factors that influence the phenomena, the complex includes atmospheric, wind wave, sea ice, and hydrodynamic models. The objective of our research is to assure the accuracy of the forecasts, developing and introducing various techniques for observation data processing and assimilation, model calibration, ensemble forecasting, etc. Our software was implemented in the St. Petersburg Flood Prevention System for 24x7 running. St. Petersburg Flood Prevention System was designed by BCC company for Barrier Authority.
The following video shows the genesis, development and the following prevention of surge flood hazard that hit Saint Petersburg in January 2015.
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